Smartphone sales and the industry have seen unprecedented growth during the last decade. However, a report by Counterpoint Research predicts that the global smartphone market may contract by 2026, mainly owing to the RAM (memory) shortage that will directly affect smartphone prices onto the market.
What are the reasons for the possible shrinkage of the smartphone market in 2026?
Mainly the market for smartphones is on the edge of saturation. Most consumers are replacing their phones after a period of use of 2 to 3 years, which was a 12 to 18-month upgrade cycle in earlier times. As per Counterpoint's analysis,
* Innovation is slowing down
* Differences are becoming less evident in the mid-range and flagship phones
* Economic uncertainty and inflation are kicking in
* Time holding with consumers elongates
Hence, for all these reasons, *global smartphone shipments could go down by 2026.
RAM Shortage-The Major Reason for Price Increase
From the end of 2025, a thundering sudden demand may arise for DRAM and LPDDR RAM. Some of the reasons are-
* AI smartphones and on-device AI processing
* Use of 12-24GB RAM in increasing numbers
* The same RAM is used simultaneously in servers, AI data centers, and automotive technology
Thus, the RAM manufacturers (Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron) are concentrating primarily on the AI and server markets. Hence, it has led to the risk for the supply of RAM shrinking for smartphones.
What Will It Mean for Smartphone Prices?
In the event of a RAM shortage, manufacturers would have to:
* Raise the phone's price
* Offer less RAM in the base variant
* Or cut back on some features
Experts think that a price hike of 10%-20% for smartphones is to be expected in 2026, especially in the mid-range and above.
Who is the customer that will be impacted most?
* Budget and mid-range phone users
* Customers from the developing countries(Bangladesh, India, Africa)
* People searching for high-RAM-based performance
Those buying flagship phones will be affected comparatively less being that they were already willing to absorb high prices.
Conclusion
Thus it should be clearly put, the year 2026 will be a tough one for the smartphone industry. With RAM shortage and AI-induced demand, the market really seems ripe for contraction, meaning no good news is coming with smartphone price augmentation. So if you are even a little inclined to the idea, 2025 may become the golden moment to acquire one.
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